Why does Everyone want War?

Every Game Theory begins with a glance at the key players. This Game takes into account of all players who wish upon Iran, an invasion. Our very first key player is the Israel Lobby, comprising of Jewish Interests (American Israel Public Affairs Committee—AIPAC) and the Christian Zionists (Christians United for Israel). We also need to look into the stage at which USA presents itself, aka, grappling at its straws to keep the Empire afloat. With a declining empire, comes anxieties and insecurities, the inflow of easy cash becomes limited—thus impacting the world's largest capitalistic country. Finally, our other two players from the Middle-east, Saudi Arabia and Iran enter the field.

Why does the Israel Lobby want a war with Iran?

The Israel Lobby consists of two main groups—American Israel Public Affairs Committee—AIPAC and Christians United for Israel.

Christian Zionist Movement

To understand the Christian Zionist Movement, aka the Christians United for Israel Movement, one needs to understand the religious beliefs driving the movement. For which I am going to reference the Second Coming of Jesus— now there were several varied voices that interpreted the Second Coming.

For people who believe in the Second Coming call themselves Premillennialists. For those who believe and followed St. Augustine's message of the 1000 years of Peace as a metaphor, are called Amillennialists. Postmillenialists however interpret the Second Coming as establishing a 1000 year of peace in the form of a Christian Church in every part of the world would initiate Jesus' arrival. Premillennialists further find themselves split into two schools of thought — Historic Premillennialism and Dispensational Premillennialism. In short, Historic Premillennialists talk of not to concern oneself with when Jesus comes back and to just be a good human being. On the other hand, Dispensational Premillennialists calls to read the Bible in a particular fashion to manipulate God into sending Jesus. They focus on certain prophetic elements that they believe to be a recipe to sending Jesus down to Earth again. These prophetic elements include a nation called Israel for Jewish people, the Third Temple to built and maintained, an Anti-Christ that will establish a covenant with Israel before leading armies of the world against it, and that point is when they believe God would intervene. Yes, Dispensational Premillennialists are a minority in the Christian faith, however, they exist as a majority in one of the Israel Lobby coalisionists— the Christians United for Israel Movement.

AIPAC

Its very simple. AIPAC's motives align with Israel's. Israel wants to be seen as the most powerful nation in the Middle East, and this involves taking out its rival who dared to retaliate, Iran. So AIPAC is instructed in ensuring America whole-heartedly supports Israel, no matter what.

Why does Saudi Arabia want a war with Iran?

Saudi Arabia has been trying to gain complete control of the region— however, it isn't born from hatred toward certain races or skin colors. You see, in this region there exist an Islamic Political Movement which comprises of two key players— Saudis as a Sunni-majority country and Iranians as a Shia-majority. In fact, in Saudi Arabia, they practice an Extremist version of Sunni called Wahhabism, which is associated with the Hanbali school, and demands a literal interpretation of the Quran.

Branches of Islam — size relative to the number of followers

The Shia-Sunni debate is of a historical significance, a dispute over who was the rightful successor to the Prophet— was it Abu Bakr (who later became the first caliph) or was it Ali ibn Abi Talib (Prophet's cousin & son-in law). These two opposing camps evolved into Shi’atu Ali (partisans of Ali) and Sunnis (followers of the sunna, meaning way). Ever since the year, 656, since Abu Bakr became the first caliph, the Shias and Sunnis have been on opposite ends.

Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims: Unity and Diversity, 2012

In short, this rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia can be interpreted as, whosoever is seen to be more powerful, will be able to dominate the Islamic world and spread their interpretation and establish the Sharia (Islamic Law of the Land)— will it be based on the Shia's or the Sunni's interpretation?

The twist in the game was in the 1930s, when oil was discovered under Saudi Arabia. 75% of the revenue comes from its oil exports, resulting in making the rich richer and them adopting a more Westernized outlook on Islam.

Side Note

The 40% of the Wahhabis were not content with this. To solve the impending crisis brewed by growing dissent, Saudi Arabia started exporting the Wahhabis from the nation, so that they can practice and preach elsewhere— for example, bin Laden's ideologies bore root in Wahhabism, however, they deviated in his interpretation and practice of jihad.

Now Saudis are the World's primary oil exporters, however Iran also exports oil and comes in fourth. The reasoning here is that Iran doesn't bank upon only one industry to boost its economy, it has its hands in multiple industries. So to have complete control over the Oil industry, Saudis wish war upon Iran

The last thing we need to look into is the Geopolitical conflict. By that I mean the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Saudis and the US have been fighting the Houthis for a while now, who are well sponsored by Iran. Further, Iran also sponsors Hamas and Hezbollah to keep Israel from expanding into more territories. From Iran's perspective, all it needs is to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the world's most profitable trading routes is in its control.

For Saudi Arabia, it does not have full control of the Red Sea, leave alone the Strait. And in order for Saudis to have more influence in the Middle East, their only hope is to have Iran annexed so that they can now dominate the Islamic world and spread their interpretation and establish the Sharia.

So the reasoning for why Saudi Arabia wants war with Iran is:

1. Religious Differences in Islamic Schools of thought

2. Economic conflict with the Oil Industry

3. Geopolitical conflict

Why does Iran want a war?

On August 19, 1953, a CIA-led military coup toppled Iran's first democratically elected government of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. To understand why let's take a short detour into Mossadegh's policies. Mossadegh's most controversial policy (labelled as controversial by the US) was of Nationalizing the Oil Industry. Let's look into the needs for this Nationalization.

In July 25, 1872, Paul Reuter, a German-Jewish banker/businessman, founder of the Reuters—the news agency—and Naser al-Din Shah of Qajar, Iran signed the Reuter concession. The concession was to surrender all industrial resources of the Kingdom into foreign hands. It was met with domestic outrage and the Shah cancelled the agreement in 1873. This concession was then used to establish the Imperial Bank of Persia (1889-1929).

Imperial Bank of Persia, 1902

May 28, 1901, the Shah then granted a British subject, William K. D'arcy access to a 60 year oil concession on all areas of Iran, except for the 5 northern provinces that bordered Russia. The concession provided privilege to explore, exploit and export petroleum.

On May 20, 1914, the British government became the major shareholder of APOC (Anglo- Iranian Oil Company), owning 51% of the shares. The agreement signed also stated that APOC would sell oil to the Admiralty for 30 years at a fixed rate. No royalties were mentioned.

On August 25, 1920, APOC began demanding royalties. The talks continued till August 18, 1932. Since Iran was facing innumerable financial pressures, the Shah cancelled the D'arcy concession, refusing to grant a new concession to the company.

Despite several attempts by the British and APOC, Iran refused to withdraw the concession. December 14, 1932, the dispute was brought to the League of Nations

February 3, 1933, Foreign Secretary of Czechoslovakia proposed Iran and APOC to negotiate a new concession

1935, a nationalistic movement under Reza Shah ensued, resulting in the national identity to shift from Persia to Iran.

Talks began again and a new concession for another 60 years was drawn. The oil export increased to its highest level of 10.16 million tons with the highest royalties of 3.54 million pounds in 1937.

1941 Mohammad Reza Pahlavi rose to power after Reza Shah was forced to abdicate the throne, for being pro-German during the WW II. However, throughout the 1940s, there existed a growing dissent towards foreign industrialists.

1951 Led by Mohammed Mossadegh, this nationalist movement elected him as the first and last democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran. The parliament then voted to nationalize the Iranian oil industry and APOC was expelled from Iran.

1953 Operation Ajax (CIA-MI6 Coup) was launched. Mossadegh's parliament was overthrown and Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was reinstated as the Shah of Iran.

For context, here is a passport of an Iranian woman—left. was taken in 1978 and the right. in 1984

According to Iran, the US interfered with their democratic process and reinstated series of decades of cruelty.

• Martial Law was evoked. Thousands were tortured and executed under Reza's rule.

• SAVAK (Iranian Secret Police Service) was established by the CIA and Mossad assistance, resulting in the imprisonment without due process, electrocution, raping and psychologically torturing victims— many were made to "disappear".

• Free Press and News outlets were suppressed

• Despite the atrocities committed, students killed, there were land reforms in place, leading to the White revolution of 1963, benefitting only the upper class.

• 1978-79, was particularly bloody. The regime responded with a Black Friday massacre (September 8, 1978), killing several people in the Tehran's Jaleh Square

• And then there was the Islamic Revolution, a series of uprisings to overthrow the 2500 year old Persian monarchy. Reza fled on January 16, 1979, to the US to seek medical assistance.

• He lived in exile in several countries: Egypt, Morocco, the Bahamas, Mexico, the United States, and Panama.

• And finally settled in Egypt, where President Anwar Sadat granted him asylum and gave him a state funeral.

• For Iran, the monarchy collapsed on February 11, 1979. Iran became an Islamic Republic.

So since 1979, people of Iran demanded 3 things: there will be no more kings in Iran; the US will refrain from domestic politics; and that the government should govern based on Islamic Law. So 90% of the population voted to install the Islamic Republic.

In November 1979, around 600 Iranian religious extremists tried to persuade Mecca into ruling against the monarchy, specifically the Saudi Arabian monarchy. Yes, it did not sit well with the Saudis and ever since then the two countries have been at arms length about governance and their interpretation of Islam.

Let's fast-forward a bit. Iran has been slowly poking US into invading it ever since 1980s. Most recently, in Yemen, (the back story here involves Saudis meddling in Yemenis affairs, leading to the birth of the rebel group called the Houthis) Iran decided to fund the Houthis rebellion as it created a blockade at the Red Sea, attacking some of the US' naval bases. This blockade prevented trade routes that were traditionally used by the US, and Israel. Further, Iran also sponsors Hamas and Hezbollah to keep Israel from expanding into more territories.

Another controversial figure in Iran's political sphere was Ebrahim Raisi, former President of Iran. He was killed in a helicopter accident in 2024. There are conspiracies regarding his death, that it was an inside job, as Raisi was interested in de-escalation and not a full-fledged war with Israel.

The one thing that Iran is counting on this time, is the hatred toward America that can be channeled and utilized as a Nationalistic movement.

"Dear Karbala, dear Najaf, dear Kadhimiyah, and dear Samarra [cities of Iraq], we warn the great powers and their lackeys and the terrorists, the great Iranian people will do everything to protect them."— Hassan Rouhani, Former Iranian President

The question here is why would Iran want a war? How will it benefit from it?

Let's suppose in the nearest future, the President of the United States does come on TV, and announces a full-fledged war against Iran. The announcement would surely be cloaked as "America as the Savior" or as "Free Iran". They will provide 5 reasons that will form their justification for an invasion:

1. The contents of the message would more or less state that "there has been civil unrest in Iran, women's rights are atrocious, Iranian people want democracy, the country is on the brink of a civil war, and hence, America, the land of the free, is going to give them that freedom." So the hashtags used here would be #freedom and #democracy.

2. They will further try to push the narrative of Iran having nukes, which they have been doing so for decades—"they are just 1 month away from developing nuclear weapons! So to stop the program, we must strike first."

3. And lastly, they will touch upon the oil routes that are being blocked by the Iranian proxies like the Houthis at the Red Sea stating— "40% of the oil from here goes to China, Japan and South Korea. So in the interest of ensuring global prosperity, we must weaken Iran." #golbalprosperity

4. "Iran has been attacking our allies: Saudi Arabia and Israel. Hezbollah has been attacking and killing innocent Israelis and the Houthis have been attacking Saudi Arabia's oil fields. We have an obligation to protect our allies."

5. "We know that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been funding terrorism. Last week,.... killed 175 people. Our intelligence tells us it was an Iranian operation"

6. They will brag about their military capabilities and offer a ridiculous deadline of suppose 2 weeks, and say "that's how long it will take us to defeat Iran".

It is clear though that despite US' meddling in the past, its methodologies, rarely see any changes.

So America invades. Then what? What are the issues with this plan?

But wars are expensive, and very hard to maintain. As a result of which, the US military maintains a standard doctrine when going into war.

• Mass Forces

• Avoid encirclement

• Protect supply lines

However, US has improved quite a bit since the Cold War, and do use air supremacy, special forces, etc. that justify not using the standard doctrine. The one major advantage here is that the war US engages with now, no longer needs public support, personnel as soldiers, as it is extremely cost-effective and highly targeted.

Side Note

American people have not had a war in a while. So drafting 4-5 million people for war, will not be useful to the empire - as the population is unprepared. I suppose the ICE raids and concentration camps, serve a broader and darker purpose. First, strip the immigrant off its rights and citizenship. Second, put them in concentration camps, out their individuality, sense of self and will they hang on to — treat them like slaves. Third, offer them their citizenship if they agree to join the military. For America the immigrants are disposable and can be used as fodder for the war they mean to engage in—to maintain their Imperial Empire.

But let us re-visit the US Military Standard doctrine:

• To control a 90 million Iranian population, united in hatred towards Americans, one would need at least 3-4 million US troops. So mass forces are out of the equation.

• through a mountainous terrain. If the military were to send ground forces they will be trapped. They are now hostages. So avoid encirclement is out of the equation.

• The only way in and out of Iran for US troops would be via air. You could air drop people and supplies via air, but to support a large army air drop isn't really a good idea. To further add to the dicey situation, it is a mountainous region, so any Iranian, well hidden by the mountains can take down US air-supplies. Further, if ground troops do enter the Iranian territory, they do so knowing that the supplies on their back are the only ones available. They will soon run out of supplies. So protecting supply lines is a dicey scenario.

• Lastly, as America already did, if it continues to bomb Iran from American soil, it risks waking up Iranian sleeper cells in America.

To re-iterate, once the Americans invade Iran, the whole country, even its dissented citizens will unite against America. So Iran is banking upon this invasion. Moreover, defeating the US, for Iran is akin to gaining full control of the Islamist Political Movement, and hence dictating the Sharia.

So everyone wants war? Yes. Its a question of when. Now we have a fairly good understanding of the Strategies of War, we know that if America is pressured into sending ground troops. It will lose the war. This isn't a fresh out of the boat thought. This is public knowledge. However, despite knowing this, the US Military will still be sent to Iran to maintain hubris. And Iran is counting on it.